Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Resignation, Special Election, Prediction

I think they may have finally gotten a district where a Dem might not be able to defeat the Repub in a special election. Of course, I'm talking about Senate District 17, where outgoing Sen. Kyle Janek will leave someone to try to keep the seat.

If you will remember from a previous post, the Repub leadership in Austin has been 0-fer in special elections to retain a legislative seat since the departure of Jack Stick. Donna Howard, Kirk England (after a switch) and Dan Bartlett are all D's who won special elections designed to keep a seat in the Republican column.

Problem is, I the population of SD17 is so grossly skewed to suburban Houston, that I think it will be difficult, though not impossible, for a D win if the election is indeed held in May. However, expect several R's to jump in, dividing up the vote, leaving an opening for a well-financed/popular D to win a runoff if the circumstances are right. I certainly hope they are.

On second thought, I'll save the prediction until after the field emerges. I can tell you one thing, if Gary Polland and Charlie Howard are in, I like our chances already. Hopefully, some also-ran who misses the CD22 runoff won't try to ride in there at the last minute.

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